Church Street Ward is one of the most deprived wards in Westminster, accordingly to social/demographic trending and analysis.
In 2008, there was a by-election and the results where as follows
| AHMED – Mehfuz |
|
|
The Conservative Party Candidate |
955 |
| ROWNTREE – David Alexander De Horne |
The Labour Party Candidate |
652 |
| THOMPSON – Martin Adam |
|
Liberal Democrats |
|
176 |
This meant that the vacant seat went to the Tories.
In 2006, the figures where as follows:
| Toki, Abdul A. |
LAB |
1099 |
| Grahame, Barbara J. |
LAB |
1078 |
| Mothersdale, Antony G. |
LAB |
979 |
| Hamid, Abdus S. |
CON |
807 |
| Uddin, Abul F.M. |
CON |
794 |
| Shaw, Alexander S.J. |
CON |
663 |
| Ridley, Yvonne |
R |
565 |
| Castles, Jacqueline M. |
LD |
310 |
| Evans, Paul D. |
LD |
278 |
| Nicolaou, Artemis |
LD |
209 |
There where THREE Labour Party candidates elected in 2006.
Now looking at the 2010 election, you will see the voting patterns have changed:
Abdel-Hamid Ahmed Gharib The Labour Party Candidate 1920 ELECTED
Ahmed Mehfuz The Conservative Party Candidate 1234
Amieur Mohammed 271
Cuthbertson Peter Malcolm The Conservative Party Candidate 1049
Grahame Barbara Joan The Labour Party Candidate 2138 ELECTED
Hall Christopher Bernard Liberal Democrats 714
Hamood Salahuddin Mohamed Green Party 361
Mourad Fatima The Conservative Party Candidate 921
Thompson Martin Adam Liberal Democrats 625
Toki Abdul Aziz The Labour Party Candidate 1832 ELECTED
In 2006. the Tory’s managed 807 as their top candidate vote, however in 2010, they managed 1234 (this is the candidate who won the by-election in 2008 and stood again, only to be defeated). The LibDem candidates (of which there where three) in 2006 polled a total of 797 votes which amounts to 11.75% of the votes cast. In 2010 elections, there was a much higher electoral turnout (11065 votes cast) and the LibDems (2 candidates this time which perhaps was an advantage) polled 1339 votes which amounts to 12.10% of the votes cast.
Which ever way you look at it, an increase in share is an increase! Considering that the local party had decided to concentrate on two other wards and there was NO (repeat NO) candidate literature for the Church Street Ward LibDem candidates, this is remarkable. I did a lot of work in getting my name known (using social media and networking tools and talking to people in the area) so I am impressed that I actually polled more votes than the other LibDem candidate who contested the by-election 2 years ago.
So what do we do now?
I think that we should concentrate on wards which we CAN WIN and there needs to be a hard look at the voting figures over the past 2 elections and any subsequent by-elections (which I am doing at the moment) and identify trends and patterns, use these and start planning NOW for the next election (which also means we will be in a position to fight any arising by-elections if they occur).
More to come on this as I crunch the numbers.